Looking Solid
No equivocation this week; the housing news was solid. Numbers for both existing and new home sales in May were higher than April’s and much better than anticipated. The one price index released, reported respectable if not exceptional gains.
Existing home sales hit a six year high, a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.35 million compared to 5.09 million in April (a +5.6% change) and 4.90 million (+9.2%) as compared to May 2014. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said the last time sales outpaced this rate was in November 2009.
Of special note was the increase in sales to first-time buyers, 32% of the total compared to 30% in April and 27% a year earlier. NAR’s Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said this was encouraging, but whether the share will continue to climb “will depend on how fast rates and prices rise.”
The report on new home sales was even better, but when we say sales were up 2.2% from April, you might question that contention. Trust us. That increase was from an April where sales were originally reported up 6.4% but are now revised to reflect an 8.1% increase. Thus we have a 10.5% gain since March. Sales in May were also 19.5% higher than one year earlier.
Both reports surprised analysts, especially new home sales where the annual rate, 546,000 units was 6,000 above even the most optimistic estimate. For existing homes, the consensus was short by 100,000. Inventories remain very tight with approximately 2.29 million existing homes for sale, an estimated 5.1 month supply, down slightly from April. The Census Bureau estimates there were 206,000 new homes available for sale at the end of May, unchanged from April and an estimated 4.5 month supply.
These inventories will inevitably put upward pressure on home prices if sales continue at such healthy levels. Increases in available existing homes depend on the whims of their owners who have thus far seemed either unmotivated or unable to put their homes on the market. Any upcoming impact from the surge in residential construction reported last week is also difficult to determine because new home inventories reported by the Census Bureau overlap to some extent their construction figures. Many of the 206,000 available new homes are not yet complete, so probably duplicate some of the estimated 480,000 single family units in the pipeline.
In other news, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) said its Home Price Index (HPI)–based on April home purchases funded by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae–rose 0.3% from March and were up 5.3% on an annual basis. The HPI is now back to February 2006 levels. Looking solid, indeed!